Prostate cancer survival predictor launched

A tool that helps patients with nonmetastatic prostate cancer choose watchful waiting or more radical treatment is available to men and the healthcare professionals treating them. The Predict Prostate tool went live on an NHS website on 13 March.

The study demonstrating the accuracy of the data behind the tool has also been published in PLOS Medicine.

To develop the tool, researchers studied a large UK dataset of long-term survival information in over 10 000 men diagnosed with nonmetastatic prostate cancer. An additional dataset of over 2500 men diagnosed in Singapore was used for additional external validation. The tool provides guidance about men’s chances of living 15 years or more following diagnosis.

The model produces graphs showing chances of surviving 10 or 15 years for men in different situations, with and without surgery or radiotherapy treatment (radical treatment). Examples show that a man aged 52 with a PSA of 6.2, tumour stage 2 and tumour grade 2, would be 8.4% more likely to survive for 15 years with radical treatment.      

Mr David Thurtle, a researcher with The Urology Foundation and urology registrar in Cambridge, who was one of the lead developers of the tool says: ‘The Predict tool will empower patients to become more involved in their treatment decision process. By providing men with more personalised information, it is hoped patients can have more informed discussions with consultants and nurses, as well as with friends and family on what the best choice for them might be. Free online access also enables men from any part of the country to have the same access to evidence-based, standardised information.’

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